Op Ed: The Alarming Crisis in Crime Data Reporting and Its National Consequences
The truth is crime in America is severely underreported and inadequately understood.
Some progressive politicians and think tanks continue to tout research showing that crime is at historically low levels. However, this research is often spurious, rooted in a narrow interpretation of quantitative data without the qualitative insights necessary to fully understand the complexities of crime. These same individuals and organizations exhibit significant cognitive biases, shaped by ideological leanings that prevent them from telling the full story behind crime statistics. Moreover, it’s essential to examine the funding sources behind these organizations, as money can influence conclusions. Dr. Myers’ Rule #1 is to always "Follow the Money First," and doing so often reveals why these studies may present a distorted view of reality.
The truth is, crime in America is severely underreported and inadequately understood, especially when considering that the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program—the nation’s primary source for crime data—has been incomplete for years. Since 2020, 25-35% of law enforcement agencies have failed to provide crime data annually. In 2022, The Marshall Project revealed that more than 6,000 law enforcement agencies, representing nearly one-third of the country’s 18,000 police departments, were missing from FBI crime data. This gap means that a quarter of the U.S. population wasn’t represented in federal crime statistics last year. The consequences of this are far-reaching, as we are left with a fragmented and incomplete understanding of public safety.
Through my own research, specifically a mixed-methods study titled “The Consequences of Proposition 47” published on my Substack site, I found that over 31% of California's 58 counties provided only partial or incomplete crime data. This alarming statistic reveals how the data gaps are not just a national problem but also manifest at state and local levels, especially in regions like California, where controversial reforms such as Proposition 47 have been implemented. Without accurate crime data, both the public and policymakers are left in the dark, unable to make informed decisions or craft effective crime prevention strategies.
The Rise in Violent Crime and Law Enforcement Failures
Despite what progressive think tanks might suggest, violent crime has been on the rise in recent years. Several factors contribute to this, including a significant reduction in law enforcement presence. Since 2020, the number of police officers on the streets has declined dramatically due to a 44% increase in retirements nationwide. This exodus of officers has left many police departments understaffed and unable to adequately enforce the law, particularly when it comes to preventing violent crime.
Moreover, the U.S. is home to an estimated 14 million illegal aliens, and crimes committed by this population are often either underreported or unreported altogether. Local law enforcement agencies, already stretched thin, are now faced with the additional responsibility of handling immigration-related crimes. This diversion of resources has left communities more vulnerable to other criminal activities, further exacerbating the crime problem.
Compounding these issues, Proposition 47 in California has reclassified many drug and property crimes from felonies to misdemeanors. This has led to a broader sense of lawlessness, as offenders face reduced consequences for their actions. From 2014 to 2023, violent crime in California increased by 23%, while arrests for violent crime decreased by 9%, property crime arrests dropped by 38%, and drug crime arrests plummeted by 86%. These statistics illustrate the widening gap between the reality of crime and law enforcement's ability to respond. California's failure to address rising crime can largely be attributed to a combination of underreporting and policies like Proposition 47 that decriminalize actions once considered serious offenses.
Unreported Crime: The Hidden Epidemic
The underreporting of crime is one of the most significant obstacles to understanding the true scope of criminal activity in the U.S. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) reveals that only 47% of violent crimes and 35% of property crimes are reported to the police. Even more concerning, 63% of sexual assaults go unreported according to RAINN, and 70% of domestic violence incidents are not reported, according to the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence. The FBI estimates that 50% of burglaries also go unreported. These figures show that reported crime statistics only capture a fraction of the criminal activity occurring in communities.
Clearance rates, which indicate the percentage of crimes solved by law enforcement, further demonstrate the challenges. Nationally, the clearance rate for murder is just 52.3%, while it’s a dismal 26.1% for rape, 23.2% for robbery, and 41.4% for aggravated assault. For property crimes, the rates are even lower: 13% for burglaries, 12.4% for larceny-theft, and 9.3% for motor vehicle theft. These low clearance rates are compounded by the fact that, in many cases, victims no longer report crimes at all. This phenomenon, known as “crime reporting apathy,” is driven by the belief that law enforcement either won’t respond or can’t do much to address minor offenses. As crime becomes normalized, fewer people see the point in reporting incidents to the authorities.
The "Ferguson Effect" and Zero Bail Policies
The “Ferguson Effect” refers to a growing reluctance among police officers to engage in proactive policing due to concerns about public scrutiny and the rise of anti-police sentiments. In the wake of highly publicized incidents like the 2014 shooting in Ferguson, Missouri, police morale has suffered, and officers have become more hesitant to intervene in potential criminal situations. This has led to an increase in crime, as law enforcement disengagement creates a vacuum that emboldens offenders.
The impact of lenient policies like zero bail in California has also contributed to the rise in crime. A recent study found that individuals released on zero bail were rearrested for 169% more crimes than those released on traditional bail. Over an 18-month period, the recidivism rate for zero-bail offenders was a staggering 78%, compared to 33-44% for those who posted bail. This data reveals that the rush to reduce incarceration rates through measures like zero bail is fueling recidivism and undermining public safety.
The Data Gap and Its Consequences
The crime data gap presents a dangerous misconception: lower arrest rates are often misinterpreted as a decline in criminal activity. In reality, the combination of underreporting, lenient policies, and law enforcement disengagement paints a far different picture. When nearly one-quarter of the U.S. population is not represented in federal crime data, and over 6,000 police departments fail to submit crime reports, policymakers and the public are left with an incomplete and misleading understanding of the nation’s crime landscape.
This issue is particularly acute in California, where over 31% of counties provide incomplete crime reports. While violent crime rises, the state’s data collection efforts are failing to keep pace, leaving vast swaths of criminal activity undocumented.
Conclusion: Reforming Crime Data Reporting Is Urgent
America’s crime problem is far more severe than many progressive politicians and think tanks would have the public believe. The spurious research they rely on, biased by both ideology and funding sources, presents a dangerously incomplete narrative. As Dr. Myers’ Rule #1 states, we must “Follow the Money First” to understand how these distorted conclusions are reached.
We need a national call for Evidence-based policing which is an approach that emphasizes the use of research and data to inform law enforcement strategies and decision-making. By relying on proven practices and empirical evidence in real time, this method enables police agencies to focus resources on tactics that have been shown to reduce crime effectively. For example, targeted strategies such as focused deterrence, hot-spot policing, and problem-oriented policing have consistently demonstrated their ability to lower crime rates in high-risk areas. Unlike traditional methods, which often rely on intuition or reactive measures, evidence-based policing allows law enforcement to proactively address specific crime patterns with precision. This approach enhances public safety while making efficient use of limited resources, leading to better outcomes in crime prevention, arrest rates, and community trust. Moreover, evidence-based policing can help to refine policies and practices over time, ensuring continuous improvement in the effectiveness of law enforcement efforts.
The national crisis in crime data reporting must be addressed. Law enforcement agencies need adequate resources and budgets to both enforce the law and report crimes accurately. Crime reporting apathy must be combated with stronger engagement between the public and police, and national crime data systems must be modernized to ensure every community is represented. Without these changes, America will continue to struggle with an incomplete and misleading understanding of its true crime problem, leaving millions of people at risk.